Why do you still listen?

If they're wrong, they're wrong.

Ooh, I’m rather proud of this one. NightCafe AI.

Back in 1999 I was Staff over at The Firing Line there were some minor Internet pundits who got a lot of people all lathered up over Y2K. If you listened to these folks — and a lot of people did — people in the big cities were going to be eating each other by the morning of January 4. It would be ten years — minimum — before the world economy recovered. If ever. Amongst other dire prophecies.

They were wrong. About every major pronouncement they uttered.

Same group of folks confidently got folks wrapped around the axle about UN observers in the 2004 election cycle — “The observers will make up enough errors to justify the United Nations taking over! Martial law! Blue Helmets in teh streets!”

Wrong again.

“Hillary will get into the Oval Office … somehow … and install Bill as Secretary-General of the United Nations! Dystopia!”

Twenty years, plus or minus, of waiting on that one and then they switched it up to: '“Michelle will get into the Oval Office … somehow … and install Barack as Secretary-General of the United Nations! Dystopia!”¹

Every election cycle they confidently predict martial law to either keep the candidate in office past the Constitutional term limits, or to put the loser into the Oval Office.

Did I miss someone’s unlawful third term, or were they wrong again?

“Michelle Obama out of nowhere to save the White House for the Democrats!”

Nope. Again.

If someone is terrifying you with dire predictions, do yourself a favour — go back and see if they’ve been right at least 50% of the time in their past doom-and-gloom predictions. If not — why are you giving them the least amount of credence?

I just don’t understand. These people are consistently wrong in their prognostications — and I don’t mean just a little bit wrong, I mean flat wrong² — yet when they make their latest announcements, it’s like all of their previous wrong assessments just … didn’t happen. And sane and stable normal folks will still listen, and stress out.

Pfagh.

Am I saying that everything is all roses and kittens? No. What I am saying is that in the history of the United States — to say nothing of the grand span of human existence — this is not the egregiously worst time, politically or otherwise, that various pundits would have you believe.

I told Rita early on that “Things are never as good as the optimists say, but they’re also never as bad as the pessimists say.” There’s a big spectrum between the optimistic pundits and the pessimistic pundits, and the truth of any matter is generally found in that big, manky, boring middle part.

Which is a long-winded way of saying: If you’re stressing-out due to doom-and-gloom predictions by someone, you need to check their past history — honestly³ — and see if they’re right more often than they’re wrong on the big things.

If they can’t get the big things right at least half the time — why are you listening to them? Why are you letting them stress you out? Why are you giving them any sort of faith or confidence?

Go outside and touch some grass, ok?

Ian

1. Poor Hillary. Lost out again.

2. Honestly, you’d get better intel by decoding whale farts.

3. This is the “verify” part of “Trust, but verify”.