You say you want a revolution?
Nah, you really don't.
People keep trying to tell me either that we’re in a civil war, or we need to go ahead and kick off a civil war.
These people have never been in a civil war, coup d’etat, revolution, or “low-intensity internal conflict” in their lives. You know how I can tell? Because they’re telling me that we’re in one, or we need to start one.
Sigh.
As I mentioned yesterday, I grew up in the Africa of the 1970s. My little brother was born in Tripoli, Libya in July of 1969. In September of 1969, a greasy little bugsnipe1 running the Free Officers Movement launched the al-Fateh Revolution, a coup d’etat which overthrew the ruling monarchy and established the Libyan Arab Republic.
We left, and Da’ got transferred to Nigeria, which was still dealing with the Nigeria-Biafra War (also known as the Nigerian Civil War), which allegedly ended in 19702, with the complete destruction of the Republic of Biafra. If you believe the official historical record3 there were two more little dust-ups that followed: the 1975 coup, and the 1976 coup attempt. I’m here to tell you that the Nigerians treated armed rebellion like a national sport during that decade.
On top of which, my parents were the stable, married European petrochemical couple in the region, so engineers running from other coups, civil wars, revolutions and/or “low intensity internal conflicts” would often be found sleeping on the couch, carpet, bathtub, or dining room table when we kids woke up in the morning.
After Nigeria, there were other bush wars/ coup d’etats/ civil wars/ whathaveyou4, which is a long and wandering way of telling you I’m fairly acquainted with the whole concept.
When Americans think of the concept of “civil war” the image that most of them get — I think — is the sanitised versions5 of 18th and 19th century revolutions provided by history professors and Hollywood.
The reality of 20th and 21st century internal kinetic actions is quite different. Civil wars — if they ever really were — are no longer fought between organised, uniformed armies, on battlefields, all trying to limit collateral damage.
In these Enlightened Times, civil wars are guerilla actions conducted by small groups, with the government muddling about incompetently, irking everyone.
The thing about small groups is that everyone in those groups shows up with a list of names6, and while during the initial stages the group tries to be careful about who goes on their list of Those What Deserve Our Wrath7, as the conflict extends, they get less and less careful about vetting the names. People guilty of no more than being the target of someone’s jealousy, or in someone’s way, or daring to be a better businessman inevitably wind up getting whacked.
As the conflict carries on, one or more of these small groups will start to lose. This is inevitable. What is also inevitable is that outside interests8 will immediately be Johnny-on-the-spot with “no strings attached”9 offers of funding, training, weapons, and/or observers. Understand, please, that certain groups — frequently around college children — already have a line to Beijing and/or Moscow. Might want to factor that in to your planning.
Another thing about small groups is that if your small group is fairly well-funded prior to the fireworks going off — you’re hip-deep in government agents10, you just don’t know it yet.
As the whole thing progresses, with the State governments, and the Federal Government annoying everyone, various foreign governments playing silly buggers, and the small groups all being backstabbery and skullduggery; it’ll go uncivilised with an almighty quickness.
And that’s when the atrocities will start. And the counter-atrocities. That’s when the distaff side of the species goes from “people” to “commodities”, and groups start Making Examples and Teaching Lessons. And this, Gentle Readers, will be the excuse that will be used to let slip the thugs. And the “Special Units”.
That’s how between 50k and 100k belligerents got whacked during the Biafra War, while 3 million non-belligerents got atrocitied to death11.
And I’m just going to tell you that 1970s Nigerians and Biafrans were not as good at war as Americans are. We Americans have many, many talents, but our finest is war. And everyone who is killed during a second American civil war … will be an American. Not other folks. The whole butcher’s bill will be written in American cities. Not off in some other country.
We don’t need to unleash that particular talent against our fellow Americans, and anyone beating the wardrums for it should probably be taken out behind the barn and Ol’ Yeller’d. Or ask them a simple question:
”In which modern revolution — exactly — did things turn out better for the average person when the bodies stopped bouncing? Which one ended with the citizens being freer?”
Just saying.
We’re not at the Civil War stage yet, Gentle Readers. If we can remain focussed, and not go politically “ADH-Squirrel!” the ballot box will prevail.
Keep that in mind.
Ian
Muammar Gaddafi.
Hint: It did not, in fact, end in 1970.
Hah!
1970s Africa was … spicy.
Noble, virtuous good guys here. Evil, dastardly bad guys there. Battle at noon, picnic by five PM. Yack.
And I hate to break the news to you … but your name is on someone’s smoke list. Best keep that in mind.
Almost everyone’s list contains the Odds, and those living on the edge of society.
“Outside interests” is a Latin phrase that translates as “China”. Coincidentally, it is also a Greek phrase that translates as “Russia”.
Spoiler alert: There will be strings attached.
Fun fact: During WW2 and Vietnam, the FBI infiltrated Nazi and Communist groups inside the U.S. After the wars were done, studies found that the undercover Feds were the only members of the group who had regular employment, and they were the only ones paying the membership dues that kept the organisations from bankruptcy.
Yes, 3,000,000 is the correct number. Officially. Unofficially … that’s when they stopped counting.
Give me boring days wherein I may generate my own fun, or read about worlds that never were. In-the-paint excitement is not a flavor I crave.
Civil wars are the nastiest, ugliest, meanest, bloodiest kind of conflict. They build resentments that take decades to settle out. France didn't finally settle all of the conflict theirs stirred up until the 1970s. We're *still* dealing with periodic aftershocks from the 1860s.
The people who most want a civil war in the US with a winner-take-all enemy-stomp are, in order, China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, all so they can run free without the US trying to tell them what to do.
If anyone thinks they want us to have a civil war, they should look at who *else* wants one and maybe rethink their goals.
Finally: Revolutions have a very nasty habit of stirring up things that the people who start them don't expect.
The French Revolution started when the king said to the nobles "I need you to pay taxes," and the nobles said "naaahhhh," whereupon the king called an Estates General to get the support of the peasants to shove it down the nobles' throats.
Everything else started from that spark. And it all kinda got out of hand.