So, Iran. Part 2
What are we dealing with?
“Ok, Ian, give me the political terrain in Iran. What is any pretender to the Iranian throne going to have to deal with?”
Oh, boy. Grab a drink, and take a knee.
The Mullahs.
These are the chunks floating at the top of the pit. While Islam in Iran is of the Shi’a variety, the mullahs are a subset of the Twelver sect of same.
Twelvers believe that there is a Twelfth Imam, hidden by God, who will one day return and kick off the Day of Judgement, where the righteous will ascend to Heaven, and the sinners will be turfed into hell. Where the Iranian mullahs diverge from Twelver orthodoxy is that they believe that if the entire world is aflame in war and conflict, it will force the Twelfth Imam to reveal himself and start the whole punting process. In essence, they think they’re jogging God’s elbow — and it’s their holy duty to do so. There are about 300,000 of these little bugsnipes, but I think only about 200 to 300 are the main drivers of Iranian State Fanaticism.
Since this is a fanatical religious belief on their part, the best thing for Iran — and the world in general1 — is to quietly take the top 300 or so out behind the barn and Ol’ Yeller every one of them. The rest should bugger off with a quickness, once the bodies start bouncing.
The Basij.
Best thought of as your neighborhood Karen with clubs and a whole-hearted belief in their Righteous and Holy Duty To Be Bastards. Basijis are unpaid paramilitary volunteers who have decided that since the mullahs can’t be everywhere, they’ll help carry out “the Imam’s Will”. The basij started as war veterans, but as attrition has thinned the ranks, most basijis these days are young, angry males; and they’re the primary enforcers of (arbitrary) morality codes, riot-breakers, and snitches. The guys you see riding around on scooters clubbing rioters? Basijis. Women “judicially” raped for being “unchaste”? Basijis. Dudes with 1-800-Dial-A-Snitch on speed-dial every time they suspect “unIslamic behaviour”?2 Basijis.
While unpaid, the basij do get favours from the mullahs, as well as being patted on their heads and regularly told what good boys they are in public proclamations by the mullahs.
If the mullahs fall the majority of the basij will probably go back to skulking in corners, but their leaders need to be taken out back and told to look at the flowers.
Ansar-e Hezbollah.
What happens when you have a particularly vicious basiji? One who spouts Koranic verses while raping a woman for showing her ankles, then tells her “Nothing personal, but this was best way to keep your soul from hell”? The little bugsnipes with the pious miens while violating every human right known to exist?
Well, you give them a paycheque, formal training, add them to The Supporters of the Party of God, and assign them to important particular mullahs.
Where the basij will break up a riot With Prejudice, the Ansar-e Hezbollah will guesstimate who the riot leaders are, follow them home, then show up later with knives, cattle prods, and molotov cocktails. When you hear3 that an “opposition party leader” was nailed to the wall in his house so he could watch “person or persons unknown” rape his wife and daughters before setting the house on fire, it’s these little bastards.
When I mention that they’re “assigned to particular mullahs”, Ansar-e Hezbollah provides each mullah with Henry II4 quality (im)plausible deniability. A mullah will snivel about someone who might be a thorn in their side, their Ansar-e Hezbollah dacoits will take off for a “smoke break”, come back covered in blood, and when the news comes out, the mullah will be shocked5 that violence occurred, and will say nice things in memoriam6.
Each and every member of Ansar-e Hezbollah needs a long drop and quick stop in a public marketplace at high noon.
Sepah-e Pasdaran.
Ah, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.7 Not only the terrorist’s terrorists, but a military-industrial complex of a level that should only exist in the sweaty dreams of conspiracy theorists. Originally set up as a foil to any potential coup d’etat by the conventional Iranian military, and to deal with any “religiously deviant”8 outbreaks that might threaten the ideological purity of the mullahs vision; it has morphed into a political organism inextricably interwoven into every level of economic, social, energy, and food sphere existing in Iran.
Some experts — I’m not one of them — hold that the IRGC actually has more power than the mullahs.9 All anyone outside of Iran needs to understand is that the Sepah-e Pasdaran is a well-trained, well-funded authoritarian empire with massive political and social clout.
Here’s the stickiest wicket for anyone who takes over for the mullahs — the IRGC must — MUST — be completely purged. And when I say “purged”, I mean the Legacy Media needs to focus on whatever inconsequential Bushwa du Jour they decide is “important”, while men with silenced pistols, knives, and garrotes hunt and stack every IRGC body from the rank of general on down to about major, all paymasters and quartermasters, every senior NCO, and then any IRGC/Sepah-e Pasdaran officer who doesn’t run like a striped-arsed ape for a foreign country. Probably about 20,000 of the bastards. No trials. No announcements. Just bullets in bedrooms and blades in dark alleys.
The IRGC/Sepah-e Pasdaran is a cancer, and if it isn’t completely excised from the body of the Iranian politic, it’ll metastasize and kill any attempts at reform.
I realize that there are plenty of other segments of Iranian political/religious hierarchy — Army, Military Intelligence, Guardian Council, Expediency Council — that are also problems, but — honestly — they all pretty much fall into one of the above-listed Major Pains In the Arse.
Hope that helps.
Ian
And, honestly, probably the kindest thing for them.
“UnIslamic behaviour” being flexible, of course.
Or not hear — authoritarian regime and all that.
Shocked, I say!
Adding, of course, that the deceased is definitely roasting in hell for defying God, poor thing.
The fact that “Iranian” is nowhere in the title is something us retired LEO types call “a clue”.
“Religiously deviant” being very broadly defined.
They don’t, but — honestly — arguing the difference is just academic wanking.
Clear, concise, and well written. Thank you. About the Twelver; am I the only one who thinks jogging God’s elbow sounds like a really, REALLY bad idea?
It helps enormously, Ian. Middle Eastern politics (ahem) remain a mystery to the general populace of the US. I spent a year living in Riyadh, and when I came home the depth of ignorance about the kingdom was staggering to me. The usual impression was that "Arabia" was on a scale somewhere between Tales of the Arabian Nights and tent-dwelling nomads. I found that almost no one believed me about things like "Chop-chop Square".